Laman

Wednesday, February 6, 2013

TEORI INVESTASI


TEORI INVESTASI
Investasi Dalam Konteks Ekonomi Makro
Investasi merupakan konsep aliran karena besarnya dihitung selama satu interval periode tertentu. Tetapi investasi akan mempengaruhi jumlah barang modal yang tersedia pada satu periode tertentu. Tambahan stok barang modal adalah sebesar pengeluaran investasi satu periode sebelumnya.
a.      Investasi dalam bentuk barang modal dan bangunan
Merupakan pengeluaran – pengeluaran untuk membeli pabrik – pabrik, mesin – mesin, peralatan – peralatan produksi dan bangunan gedung yang baru.Karena umurnya biasanya diatas setahun biasanya disebut investasi dalam bentuk harga tetap (fixed investment)
b.      Investasi Persediaan
Selain barang jadi, investasi dalam bentuk persediaan bisa juga dilakukan dalam bentuk persediaan bahan baku dan barang setengah jadi / sedang dalam proses penyelesaian. Tujuan kebijaksanaan persediaan ini juga tetap dalam konteks meningkatkan pendapatan atau keuntungan di masa depan.
Nilai Waktu dari Uang
Tahukah anda bahwa nilai uang yang sekarang tidak akan sama dengan nilai di masa depan. Ini berarti uang yang saat ini kita pegang lebih berharga nilainya dibandingkan dengan nilainya nanti di masa mendatang.
Coba bayangkan ketika anda memiliki uang satu juta rupiah di tahun 1970. Dengan uang sebesar itu anda sudah bisa hidup mewah bagaikan milyuner di masa kini. Tahun 1990 uang satu juta sudah mengalami penurunan namun nilai wah dari uang satu juta masih termasuk lumayan dan dapat menghidupi keluarga secara wajar. Namun uang satu juta di masa sekarang jelas sudah tidak ada apa-apanya. Orang yang kaya di jaman dulu disebut juga dengan sebutan jutawan, namun kini sebutan tersebut perlahan menghilang dan digantikan dengan sebutan milyuner.
Jika kita melakukan investasi, maka konsep nilai waktu uang harus benar-benar dipahami dan dimengerti sedalam mungkin. Jangan sampai kita tertipu oleh angka-angka yang fantastis, namun di balik angka yang besar itu kenyataannya justru kerugian yang kita dapatkan. Contoh kasusnya adalah jika kita berinvestasi 10 juta rupiah untuk jangka waktu 20 tahun dengan total pengembalian atau return sebesar 50 juta rupiah. Jika kita lihat dari nilai sekarang 50 juta adalah angka yang fantastis dibandingkan dengan 10 juta. Namun setelah 20 tahun berikutnya belum tentu nilai 50 juta lebih baik dibandingkan dengan nilai 10 juta saat ini.
1. Rumus Nilai Masa Depan
FV = Po (1 + r) ^n
Keteragan :
FV = Future Value / Nilai Mendatang
Po = Arus Kas Awal
r = Rate / Tingkat Bunga
^n = Tahun Ke-n (dibaca dan dihitung pangkat n)
Contoh : Jika kita menabung 1 juta rupiah dengan bunga 10% maka setelah satu tahun kita akan mendapat :
FV = 1.000.000 (1 + 0,1) ^1
FV = 1.100.000 rupiah

2. Rumus Nilai Sekarang
PV = Fn / (1 + r) ^n
Keterangan :
PV = Present Value / Nilai Sekarang
Fn = Arus kas pada tahun ke-n
r = Rate / Tingkat bunga
^n = Tahun Ke-n (dibaca dan dihitung pangkat n)
Contoh : Jika di masa yang akan datang kita akan punya saldo sebesar 1,1 juta hasil berinvestasi selama satu tahun, maka uang kita saat ini adalah sebesar :
PV = 1.100.000 / (1 + 0,1) ^1
PV = 1.000.000 rupiah
Tambahan :
1 / (1 + r) ^n disebut juga sebagai discount factor
Kriteria Investasi
Kriteria untuk menentukan kelayakan suatu investasi adalah :
  1. Payback Period (PP)
Teknik penilaian terhadap jangka waktu (period) pengembalian investasi proyek atau usaha.
Ada 2 Model perhitungan PP :
a. Apabila kas bersih setiap tahun sama
PP =         Investasi           X 12 bulan
         Kas bersih / tahun
b. Apabila kas bersih setiap tahun berbeda
PP =      Sisa Investasi                X 12 bulan
         Kas bersih sesudahnya

Untuk menilai usaha layak diterima atau tidak dari segi PP, maka hasil perhitungan tersebut harus sebagai berikut :
  1. PP sekarang lebih kecil dari umur investasi
  2. Dengan membandingkan rata – rata industri unit usaha sejenis
  3. Sesuai dengan target perusahaan
Kelemahan metode ini :
  1. Mengabaikan time value of money
  2. Tidak mempertimbangkan arus kas yang terjadi setelah masa pengembalian

  1. Average Rate of Return (ARR)
Mengukur rata – rata pengembalian bunga dengan cara membandingkan antara rata – rata laba setelah pajak (EAT) dengan rata – rata investasi.
Rumus menghitung ARR sbb:
ARR % = Rata – rata EAT
            Rata – rata investasi
Rata – rata EAT = Total EAT
                           Umur ekonomis (n)
Rata – rata investasi = Investasi
                                       2



  1. Net Present Value (NPV)
Nilai bersih sekarang merupakan perbandingan antara PV Kas Bersih (PV of proceed) denhgan PV investasi (capital outlays) selama investasi. Selisih antara kedua PV tersebutlah yang kita kenal Net Present Value (NPV)
Rumus :
NPV = Kas bersih 1 + Kas bersih 2 +...+ Kas bersih N - Investasi
                (1+r)               (1+r)²                     (1+r)
Setelah memperoleh hasil yang dengan :
NPV positif, maka investasi diterima
NPV negatif,sebaiknya investasi ditolak
  1. Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
Alat untuk mengukur tingkat pengembalian hasil intern.
Rumus = P1 – C1 X P2 – P1
                            C2 – C1
Dimana: P1 tingkat bunga 1
               P2 tingkat bunga 2
               C1 NPV1
               C2 NPV2
Apabila IRR lebih besar dari bunga pinjaman maka diterima
Apabila IRR lebih kecil dari bunga pinjaman maka ditolak
  1. Profitability Index (PI)
Profitability index atau benefit and cost ratio merupakan rasio aktifitas dari jumlah nilai sekarang penerimaan bersih dengan nilai sekarang penerimaan bersih dengan nilai sekarang pengeluaran investasi selama umur investasi.
Rumus :
PI = ∑ PV kas bersih     X 100 %
        ∑ PV investasi


Faktor – faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Tingkat Investasi
Sebagai sebuah keputusan yang rasional, investasi sangat ditentukan oleh dua faktor utama, yaitu tingkat pengembalian yang diharapkan dan biaya investasi.
a.      Tingkat pengembalian yang diharapkan (Expected Rate of Return)
·         Kondisi Internal Perusahaan
·         Kondisi Eksternal Perusahaan
b.      Biaya Investasi

TEORI KONSUMSI


TEORI KONSUMSI
Pengeluaran konsumsi terdiri atas konsumsi pemerintah dan konsumsi rumah tangga. Untuk saat ini yang akan dibahas hanya konsumsi rumah tangga karena :
Ø  Pengeluaran konsumsi rumah tangga memiliki porsi terbesar dalam total pengeluaran agregat
Ø  Konsumsi rumah tangga bersifat endogenus, artinya besarnya konsumsi rumah tangga berkaitan erat dengan faktor – faktor lain yang dianggap mempengaruhinya.
Teori Keynes (Keynesia Consumption Model)
a.      Hubungan Pendapatan Disposabel dan Konsumsi
Menurut Keynes, ada batas konsumsi minimal yang tidak tergantung tingkat pendapatan. Artinya, tingkat konsumsi tersebut harus dipenuhi,walaupun tingkat pendapatan sama dengan nol. Itulah yang disebut dengan konsumsi otonomus.
C ; Co + b Yd
Dimana :
C         : konsumsi
Co       : konsumsi otonomus
b          : marginal propensity to consume (MPC)
Yd        : pendapatan disposable
0 ≤ b ≤ 1
b.      Kecenderungan Mengonsumsi Marjinal (Marginal Prospensity to Consume)
MPC adalah konsep yang memberikan gambaran tentang beberapa konsumsi akan bertambah bila pendapatan disposable bertambah satu unit.
MPC    =
c.       Kecenderungan Mengonsumsi Rata – rata (Average Propensity to Consume)
APC adalah rasio antara konsumsi total dengan pendapatan disposable total.
APC =
d.      Hubungan Konsumsi dan Tabungan
Pendapatan disposable yang diterima rumah tangga sebagian besar digunakan untuk konsumsi,sedangkan sisanya untuk ditabung.Dengan demikian kita dapat menyatakan :
Yd        : C + S

         :  +
1          : APC + APC
Faktor – faktor yang Mempengaruhi Tingkat Konsumsi
v  Faktor – faktor Ekonomi
Empat faktor ekonomi yang menentukan tingkat konsumsi adalah :
1)      Pendapatan rumah tangga
2)      Kekayaan rumah tangga
3)      Jumlah barang – barang konsumsi tahan lama dalam masyarakat
4)      Tingkat bunga
5)      Perkiraan tentang masa depan
6)      Kebijakan pemerintah mengurangi ketimpangan distribusi pendapatan

v  Faktor – faktor Demografi
Yang tercakup dalam faktor – faktor kependudukan adalah :
1)      Jumlah penduduk
2)      Komposisi Penduduk

v  Faktor – faktor Non-Ekonomi
Faktor – faktor nonekonomi yang paling berpengaruh terhadap konsumsi adalah faktor social-budaya masyarakat.

Saturday, January 12, 2013

Critical Reading


What is critical reading

Study guide
Critical reading is an important precursor tocritical writing. This Study Guide explains whycritical reading is important, and gives some ideas about how you might become a more critical reader. Other Study Guides you may find useful are What is critical writing?Using paragraphs and The art of editing.

What is critical reading?

The most characteristic features of critical reading are that you will:
  • examine the evidence or arguments presented;
  • check out any influences on the evidence or arguments;
  • check out the limitations of study design or focus;
  • examine the interpretations made; and
  • decideto what extent you are prepared to accept the authors’ arguments, opinions, or conclusions.

Whydoweneedto take a critical approach to reading?

Regardless of how objective, technical, or scientific the subject matter, the author(s) will have made many decisions during the research and writing process, and each of these decisions is a potential topic for examination and debate, rather than for blind acceptance.
You needtobe prepared to step into the academic debate and to make your own evaluation of how much you are willing to accept what you read.
A practical starting point therefore, is to consider anything you read not as fact, but as the argument of the writer. Taking this starting point you will be ready to engage incritical reading.

Critical reading does not have tobe all negative

The aim of critical reading is not to find fault, but to assess the strength of the evidence and the argument. It is just as useful to conclude that a study, or an article, presents very strong evidence and a well-reasoned argument, as it is to identify the studies or articles that are weak.

Evidence

Depending on the kind of writing it is, and the discipline in which it sits, different kinds of evidence will be presented for you to examine.
At the technical and scientific end of the spectrum, relevant evidence may include information on: measurements, timing, equipment, control of extraneous factors, and careful following of standard procedures. Specific guidance will be available within specialties on what to look for.
At the other end of the spectrum is writing where there is clearer scope for personal interpretation, for example:
  • analysis of individuals’ experiences of healthcare;
  • the translation of a text from a foreign language; or
  • the identification and analysis of a range of themes in a novel.
In these cases the evidence may include items such as quotes from interviews, extracts of text, and diagrams showing how themes might connect.
The nature of the evidence presented at these two extremes is different, but in both cases you needto look for the rationale for the selection and interpretation of the evidence presented, and the rationale for the construction of the argument.

Broadening the definition of evidence

This Study Guide takes a broad view of evidence: it maintains that all that you read can be considered as evidence, not purely the actual data collected/presented. This encompasses:
  • the report of the context within which the data were collected or created;
  • the choice of the method for data collection or selection;
  • the audit trail for the analysis of the data i.e.: the decisions made and the steps in the analysis process;
  • the rationale for the interpretations made and the conclusions drawn;
  • the relevance of, and the use made of the theoretical perspective, ideology, or philosophy that is underpinning the argument.

Linking evidence to argument

On its own, evidence cannot contribute to academic debate. The interpretation and presentation of that evidence within an argument allows the evidence to make a contribution.
The term ‘argument’ in this context means the carefully constructed rationale for the enquiry, and for the place of its results within the academic arena. It will explain for example:
  • why the authors considered that what they did was worth doing;
  • why it was worth doing in that particular way;
  • why the data collected, or the material selected, were the most appropriate;
  • how the conclusions drawn link to the wider context of their enquiry.
Even in the most technical and scientific disciplines, the presentation of argument will always involve elements that can be examined and questioned. For example, you could ask:
  • Why did the writer select that particular topic of enquiry in the first place?
  • Why did the writer decide to use that particular methodology, choose that specific method, and conduct the work in that way?
  • Why did the writer select that particular process of analysis?

Note taking

As you read, it can be helpful to use a table to record the information that you know you will need later. In addition to the usual bibliographical details, you can devise your own list of extra information you want to collect at the initial reading stage. Some suggestions are given below.
Two important points about using such tables are:
  • it is essential that you devise your own list of information to collect from each source, based on what you know you will needto comment upon; and
  • realistically, it is probably best not to try to collect this information from every single source you use, only from those you decide to refer toin your report or assignment. Otherwise it could really slow down your background reading, and result in the collection of a mass of material that you never use.

Descriptive details you may want to record about sources

Setting
Type of data
Sample size
Use of theory
Sample profile
Equipment
Follow up
Style of writing
Statistics used
Measurements
Methods
Sources of bias
Questions raised
Limitations
Main arguments
Intended audience

Some interpretative questions you may needto ask about sources

These are questions that need more input from you as the critical reader. You will needto make judgements about your answers, and will needto record the reasons for your answers. This list is a mix of arts and science-based questions, as there are several areas of common interest.
  • How well-developed are the themes or arguments?
  • Did the theoretical perspective used introduce any potential bias?
  • Are you convinced by the interpretations presented?
  • Are the conclusions supported firmly by the preceding argument?
  • How appropriate are the comparisons that are used?
  • Did the response options, or measurement categories or techniques used affect the data that were collected?
  • Have any ethical considerations been adequately addressed?
If you take a critical approach right from the start of your reading and note taking, it can save a lot of time later on. When you come to write your assignment or thesis, you will needto comment on the validity of the writing that you refer to. So, if you have kept a systematic record of the results of your critical reading, you will be able to refer to it easily. If you have not, you will find yourself wasting a lot of time re-reading material, and re-reviewing the evidence presented.

Helpful guidance from other sources

There are many sources of guidance on how to engage incritical reading: some are in books on general study skills; others are on the internet. Chapter 10 of the ‘Study Skills Handbook’ by Stella Cottrell (2003) Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, is particularly recommended. The following questions are based on material from that chapter:
  • Does the writing assume a causal connection when there may not be one?
  • Are general conclusions drawn based on only a few examples?
  • Are inappropriate comparisons being made?
  • Might there be other explanations apart from the one proposed?
  • Are there any hidden assumptions that needtobe questioned?
  • Is enough evidence presented to allow readers to draw their own conclusions?
  • Does the line of reasoning make sense?

==================================================

www.services.unimelb.edu.au/asu/
What is critical thinking?
Critical thinking is the central intellectual skill that a tertiary education seeks to develop in students. It involves taking an attitude of reflective skepticismtowards what we read and what people tell us.
Reflective” means thinking seriously about what we have read or heard; “skepticism” means not taking it for granted that what we have read or heard is true or correct. Instead, we seek to evaluate or assess the validity of the information and opinions we encounter.
NOTE: “critical” in this context does not just mean looking for mistakes and weaknesses. It means judging what is good and what is not in the reading, and why. Critical evaluation is a higher order intellectual skill, and can therefore be a demanding intellectual task. One of the purposes of a university education is to develop your capacity to do this, and it does take time.

What is critical reading?
Sometimes we read just for pleasure or entertainment; sometimes we read just toobtain information, taking it for granted that the information is reliable. Critical readingmeans analysing and evaluating what we read – to repeat, working out what is goodand what is not, and why.Understanding the argument in a text is essential to critical evaluation – we cannotevaluate something we do not understand. We then seek to identify the strengths and
weaknesses or limitations in the author’s argument and evidence, and to challenge anyassumptions that the author might have made.We need to keep in mind that we are evaluating an author’s ideas in the context of aspecific discipline. There are variations among disciplines as to what constitutesevidence and how it might be used to support an argument. For example, approachesand assumptions used in medical research might not be appropriate in a history orsociology paper, and vice-versa.The following pages suggest a number of questions that may help you to develop acritical evaluation of what you read.
- 2 -
1. Putting the text into context
Find out anything you can about the author – who she/he is, what else she/he haspublished, what work she/he does. The gender and cultural background of the authormay have a bearing on the author’s perspective. Some of this information can begained from the foreword, introduction or the back of a book, or at the bottom corner ofthe first page of an article most academics these dayshave their own webpage, describing their work and listing their publications.This information may give you some indication of the author’s purpose, theaudience(s) she/he typically writes for, who she/he typically collaborates with inresearch, her/his ideological orientation or conceptual framework.It is important to note the date of publication of a text. The historical context in whicha text is written can influence the author’s thinking and preoccupations, and the datecan tell you how up-to-date the material in the text is.Thecontext in which an article has been published is relevant to your evaluation aswell. In a book that is a collection of articles on a particular topic, the editors’introduction usually provides a very useful summary of each article and the overalltheoretical and research context of the volume. You will learn that in each disciplinesome journals are considered particularly important, and particular journals are oftenassociated with particular theoretical approaches.
2. Reading the text
You should begin to critically evaluate as you preview material, and as you read, but it isalso useful to critically review the text as a whole after you have finished reading it. Thefollowing questions will help you undertake your critical evaluation of a text.As you read a section of a book or article, look for information to help you answer thefollowing questions
The author’s purpose
• Why has the author written the material? Are these purposes explicitly stated? Arethere other implicit purposes?
• For whom is the material intended?
The author’s approach
• What theoretical perspective has the author taken? How does this perspective relateto other material in the field?
• What are the author’s underlying assumptions? Are these explicitly stated?
• Is there any evidence of covert or overt bias in the interpretation of material or in thechoice of sources and information? (Emotional language can be a clue to this.)
Content
• Is the writer simply presenting information, or is she/he presenting an argument?
- 3 -
• If an argument, what is the writer’s thesis – i.e., the statement or proposition thatshe/he is arguing to support?
• How does the author develop the thesis from one point to another?
• What evidence, examples or explanations are used to support the thesis?
• Are the supporting evidence, examples and explanations well researched and
accurate?
• Which aspects of the topic has the author chosen to concentrate on? Which aspectshas the author not included or discussed?
• Is the material comprehensive and accurate, or is the subject treated superficially?
• Are there alternative explanations for the material or data presented? Has the authoraddressed these alternative explanations?
• Does any graphic or quantitative material illustrate or restate the written content?
• If there are any visual images, how are they linked with the written text?
• How do the contents relate to what you know about the topic?
• Which of your own questions about the subject does the author answer? Which arenot answered?
• Do any items puzzle or intrigue you?
Structure
• Is a clear, logical framework used to organise the material?
• How does the author introduce the argument?
• Are the main points organised, linked and balanced?
• How is the supporting material organised and developed within the framework?
• Does the author recapitulate what has been said at appropriate points?
Style and format
• In what style has the material been written? For example, is it formal or informal,simple or complex, descriptive or critical, didactic or persuasive, narrative oranalytical?
• How does the style and format influence your own reaction to the material?
These questions will help you critique or evaluate a text at quite a detailed level ofanalysis. Not all of them will be relevant to all your reading; you need to keep yourpurpose in mind. Nevertheless, reading for lectures, tutorials and essays always requiressome level of critical analysis. Answering the questions on the author’s approach andthe questions dealing with content should provide a good understanding of what the textcontributes to the topic.
Research articles
Research articles are typically structured in a particular way (Introduction, Method,Results, Discussion). In addition to the questions on the author’s approach, you willneed to ask the following questions when evaluating them:
• What were the authors trying to discover?
• Why is the research important?
- 4 -
• What information is given about the sample (the people or materials selected
for study)?
• Were appropriate methods used for data collection and analysis?
• What was measured?
• What were the results?
• What do the authors conclude?
• Can you accept the findings as true?
• Can you apply the findings to your own work?
• What if different studies have contradictory results?
3. Developing your own view
Your own life experiences can help you think about the validity of an argument or pointof view. Does it make sense in terms of your own experience? Does it, perhaps, makeyou question your own assumptions and prejudices?
In developing your own thinking in relation to a text, you will draw upon ideas presentedin lectures and from other texts that you have read. These offer points of view that youcan use to help you evaluate the text.Comparing authors with different points of view on the same topic can also help you toidentify their ideological framework and their inherent assumptions. Can theassumptions each author makes be challenged? Why and how are these writersinterpreting the same events, data or evidence differently?If you are having difficulty identifying the argument and/or finding things to say aboutthe text, try discussing the text with friends, with fellow students in tutorials and with
anyone else who might be interested. Discussion can generate ideas and help you clarifyyour thinking. Finally, if you enjoy a good argument, you should explore the wealth ofmaterial in the resources listed below.

What is critical reading?
The most characteristic features of critical reading are that you will:
1.    examine the evidence or arguments presented;
2.    check out any influences on the evidence or arguments;
3.    check out the limitations of study design or focus;
4.    examine the interpretations made; and
5.    decide to what extent you are prepared to accept the authors' arguments, opinions, or conclusions.

Why do we need to take a critical approach to reading?

Regardless of how objective, technical, or scientific the subject matter, the author(s) will have made many decisions during the research and writing process, and each of these decisions is a potential topic for examination and debate, rather than for blind acceptance.
You need to be prepared to step into the academic debate and to make your own evaluation of how much you are willing to accept what you read.
A practical starting point therefore, is to consider anything you read not as fact, but as the argument of the writer. Taking this starting point you will be ready to engage in critical reading.

Critical reading does not have to be all negative

The aim of critical reading is not to find fault, but to assess the strength of the evidence and the argument. It is just as useful to conclude that a study, or an article, presents very strong evidence and a well-reasoned argument, as it is to identify the studies or articles that are weak.
Evidence
Depending on the kind of writing it is, and the discipline in which it sits, different kinds of evidence will be presented for you to examine.
Broadening the definition of evidence
This Study Guide takes a broad view of evidence: it maintains that all that you read can be considered as evidence, not purely the actual data collected/presented. This encompasses:
1.    the report of the context within which the data were collected or created;
2.    the choice of the method for data collection or selection;
3.    the audit trail for the analysis of the data i.e.: the decisions made and the steps in the analysis process;
4.    the rationale for the interpretations made and the conclusions drawn;
5.    the relevance of, and the use made of the theoretical perspective, ideology, or philosophy that is underpinning the argument.
At the technical and scientific end of the spectrum, relevant evidence may include information on: measurements, timing, equipment, control of extraneous factors, and careful following of standard procedures. Specific guidance will be available within specialties on what to look for.
At the other end of the spectrum is writing where there is clearer scope for personal interpretation, for example:
1.    analysis of individuals' experiences of healthcare;
2.    the translation of a text from a foreign language; or
3.    the identification and analysis of a range of themes in a novel.
In these cases the evidence may include items such as quotes from interviews, extracts of text, and diagrams showing how themes might connect.
The nature of the evidence presented at these two extremes is different, but in both cases you need to look for the rationale for the selection and interpretation of the evidence presented, and the rationale for the construction of the argument.
Linking evidence to argument
On its own, evidence cannot contribute to academic debate. The interpretation and presentation of that evidence within an argument allows the evidence to make a contribution.
The term 'argument' in this context means the carefully constructed rationale for the enquiry, and for the place of its results within the academic arena. It will explain for example:
1.    why the authors considered that what they did was worth doing;
2.    why it was worth doing in that particular way;
3.    why the data collected, or the material selected, were the most appropriate;
4.    how the conclusions drawn link to the wider context of their enquiry.
Even in the most technical and scientific disciplines, the presentation of argument will always involve elements that can be examined and questioned. For example, you could ask:
1.    Why did the writer select that particular topic of enquiry in the first place?
2.    Why did the writer decide to use that particular methodology, choose that specific method, and conduct the work in that way?
3.    Why did the writer select that particular process of analysis?